# KAOPEN Mediation: Z → KAOPEN → Trilemma Indices

| Variable | Z → KAOPEN | MI (no KAOPEN) | MI (+ KAOPEN) | ERS (no KAOPEN) | ERS (+ KAOPEN) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 6.4899*** | 0.0066 | 0.1383 | 1.0216*** | 0.6348* |
| | (1.2992) | (0.2571) | (0.2545) | (0.3838) | (0.3783) |
| Z_2 | -0.7161*** | 0.0029 | -0.0140 | -0.1250** | -0.0694 |
| | (0.2005) | (0.0391) | (0.0388) | (0.0586) | (0.0577) |
| Z_3 | 0.0230*** | -0.0004 | 0.0003 | 0.0042* | 0.0020 |
| | (0.0084) | (0.0016) | (0.0016) | (0.0024) | (0.0024) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.0023 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 0.0003 | -0.0000 |
| | (0.0014) | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0151 | 0.0050 | 0.0054 | -0.0035 | -0.0024 |
| | (0.0137) | (0.0049) | (0.0049) | (0.0067) | (0.0068) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0002 | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0007 | 0.0007 |
| | (0.0008) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) |
| log_rel_opw | 0.2332*** | -0.0356*** | -0.0307*** | 0.0233 | 0.0107 |
| | (0.0466) | (0.0096) | (0.0096) | (0.0142) | (0.0142) |
| kaopen | | | -0.0167*** | | 0.0402*** |
| | | | (0.0041) | | (0.0060) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 5014 | 4282 | 4101 | 4690 | 4482 |
| R² | 0.3198 | 0.1072 | 0.1392 | 0.0186 | 0.0611 |
| Countries | 164 | 148 | 143 | 154 | 148 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. Mediation test: if Z attenuates when KAOPEN is included, KAOPEN partially mediates the Z → trilemma relationship. Standard errors in parentheses.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*